Indices Report – Home Prices

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Rise in Home Prices Paced by Denver, Miami, and Dallas According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

 

New York, March 31, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. However, monthly data reveal slowing increases and seasonal weakness.

 

 

Year-over-Year

Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in January compared to

December. The 10-City Composite gained 4.4% year-over-year, up from 4.3% in December. The 20City Composite gained 4.6% year-over-year, compared to a 4.4% increase in December. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.5% annual gain in January 2015 versus a 4.6% increase in December 2014.

 

Denver and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains, as prices increased by 8.4% and 8.3%, respectively, over the last 12 months. Fourteen cities reported higher price increases in the year ended January 2015 over the year ended December 2014. Chicago led the way with a reported increase of

2.5%, up 11 basis points from December. Six cities reported declines, with San Francisco leading the declining annual returns with a reported rate of 7.9%, down from 9.4% annually.

 

Month-over-Month

The National index declined for the fifth consecutive month in January, reporting a -0.1% change for the month. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites reported virtually flat month-over-month changes. Of the nine cities that reported increases, Charlotte, Miami, and San Diego led all cities in January with increases of 0.7%. San Francisco reported the largest decrease of all 20 cities, with a monthover-month decrease of -0.9%. Seattle and Washington D.C. reported decreases of -0.5%. Unusually cold and wet weather may have weakened activity in some cities.

 

Analysis

"The combination of low interest rates and strong consumer confidence based on solid job growth, cheap oil and low inflation continue to support further increases in home prices" says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Regional patterns in recent months continue: strength in the west and southwest paced by Denver and Dallas with results ahead of the national index in the California cities, the Pacific Northwest and Las Vegas. The northeast and Midwest are mostly weaker than the national index.

 

"Despite price gains, the housing market faces some difficulties. Home prices are rising roughly twice as fast as wages, putting pressure on potential homebuyers and heightening the risk that any uptick in interest rates could be a major setback. Moreover, the new home sector is weak; residential construction is still below its pre-crisis peak. Any time before 2008 that housing starts were as low as the current rate of one million, the economy was in a recession."

 

 

 

 

Graphical Representations of the U.S. Housing Market

 

Chart 1 below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.5% annual gain in January 2015. The 10- and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 4.4% and 4.6%.

 

 

Chart 2 below shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of January 2015, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their autumn 2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 16-17%. Since the March 2012 lows, the 10-City and

 

20-City Composites have recovered 28.2% and 29.0%.

 

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

 

 

 

 

 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1 below summarizes the results for January 2015. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	January 2015	January '15/December '14	December/November	1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
Atlanta	118.81	-0.2%	0.1%	4.9%
Boston	175.69	0.4%	-0.2%	4.7%
Charlotte	129.26	0.7%	0.1%	4.3%
Chicago	126.81	-0.2%	-0.8%	2.5%
Cleveland	105.67	-0.1%	-0.6%	1.6%
Dallas	143.35	0.4%	0.0%	8.1%
Denver	158.46	0.2%	0.5%	8.4%
Detroit	96.68	-0.3%	-0.2%	2.9%
Las Vegas	137.64	0.2%	-0.3%	5.9%
Los Angeles	226.36	-0.2%	0.3%	5.7%
Miami	193.76	0.7%	0.7%	8.3%
Minneapolis	140.20	-0.3%	-0.3%	2.2%
New York	175.54	0.2%	0.0%	2.1%
Phoenix	147.98	0.0%	0.2%	2.6%
Portland	170.82	0.1%	0.1%	7.2%
San Diego	204.85	0.7%	-0.2%	5.1%
San Francisco	195.77	-0.9%	0.5%	7.9%
Seattle	168.86	-0.5%	0.0%	6.8%
Tampa	164.69	-0.3%	0.0%	5.7%
Washington	205.89	-0.5%	0.0%	1.3%
Composite-10	187.80	0.0%	0.1%	4.4%
Composite-20	172.94	0.0%	0.1%	4.6%
U.S. National	166.66	-0.1%	-0.1%	4.5%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through January 2015    

 

 

 

 

 

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Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and nonseasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	January '15/December '14 Change (%)		December/November Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	-0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	1.1%
Boston	0.4%	1.0%	-0.2%	0.5%
Charlotte	0.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.7%
Chicago	-0.2%	1.1%	-0.8%	0.6%
Cleveland	-0.1%	0.8%	-0.6%	0.5%
Dallas	0.4%	1.0%	0.0%	0.7%
Denver	0.2%	1.0%	0.5%	1.4%
Detroit	-0.3%	0.9%	-0.2%	1.0%
Las Vegas	0.2%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.2%
Los Angeles	-0.2%	0.6%	0.3%	1.0%
Miami	0.7%	0.9%	0.7%	0.9%
Minneapolis	-0.3%	1.0%	-0.3%	1.0%
New York	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	0.9%
Phoenix	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.8%
Portland	0.1%	1.5%	0.1%	1.1%
San Diego	0.7%	1.9%	-0.2%	0.5%
San Francisco	-0.9%	1.1%	0.5%	1.3%
Seattle	-0.5%	0.7%	0.0%	1.4%
Tampa	-0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
Washington	-0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%
Composite-10	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.9%
Composite-20	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.9%
U.S. National	-0.1%    0.6%		-0.1%	0.7%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through January 2015    

 

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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S & P DOW JONES HOME PRICE INDICES JUST RELEASED

Home Prices Grew at Twice the Rate of Inflation in 2014

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

 

New York, February 24, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2014 shows a slight uptick in home prices across the country. Nine cities reported monthly increases in prices.

 

More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

 

Year-over-Year

Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in December compared to

November. The 10-City Composite gained 4.3% year-over-year, up from 4.2% in November. The 20City Composite gained 4.5% year-over-year, compared to a 4.3% increase in November. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.6% annual gain in December 2014 versus 4.7% in November.

 

The fastest year-over-year gains were in San Francisco and Miami, where prices rose 9.3% and 8.4% over the last 12 months. Twelve cities, including Cleveland, Denver, and Seattle, saw prices rise faster in the year to December than a month earlier. Las Vegas led the declining annual returns with 6.9%, down from 7.7% annually.

 

Month-over-Month

The National index was slightly negative in December, while both composite Indices were positive. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites reported slight increases of 0.1%, while the National Index posted a -0.1% change for the month. Miami and Denver led all cities in December with increases of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Chicago and Cleveland offset those gains by reporting decreases of -0.9% and -0.5% respectively.

 

December recorded mixed monthly figures. Nine cities recorded higher monthly figures, and six posted decreases. Five cities reported relatively flat monthly changes for December. Miami had the largest increase of all 20 cities at 0.7% month-over-month.

 

Analysis

"The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession" says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.

 

"Movements in home prices show clear regional patterns. The western half of the nation plus Miami and Atlanta enjoyed year-over-year increases of 5% or more. San Francisco and Miami were the strongest. Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas and Atlanta also experienced solid gains. Phoenix was an exception to the western strength with only a 2.4% increase; San Diego was a bit under 5% at 4.8%. The Midwest and Northeast lagged. Boston was the strongest among this weak group with prices up

3.8%. The regional patterns and the weakness in new construction and new sales may reflect decreasing mobility – fewer people moving to different parts of the country or seeking jobs in different regions."

 

Graphical Representations of the U.S. Housing Market

 

Chart 1 below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.6% annual gain in December 2014. The 10- and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 4.3% and 4.5%.

 

 

 

    

Chart 2 below shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of December 2014, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their autumn 2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 16-17%. Since the March 2012 lows, the 10-City and

 

20-City Composites have recovered 28.2% and 29.1%.

 

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

 

 

 

 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

    

Table 1 below summarizes the results for December 2014. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	December 2014 December/November November/October			1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level    Change (%)    Change (%)			Change (%)
Atlanta	119.15	0.2%	0.2%	5.1%
Boston	175.04	-0.2%	-0.2%	3.8%
Charlotte	128.47	0.2%	-0.3%	3.5%
Chicago	126.98	-0.9%	-1.2%	1.3%
Cleveland	105.79	-0.5%	-0.4%	1.5%
Dallas	142.77	0.0%	0.1%	7.5%
Denver	158.17	0.5%	0.1%	8.1%
Detroit	97.21	0.0%	-0.8%	2.8%
Las Vegas	137.41	-0.3%	0.4%	6.9%
Los Angeles	226.68	0.3%	0.3%	5.5%
Miami	192.49	0.7%	0.6%	8.4%
Minneapolis	140.73	-0.3%	-0.7%	1.9%
New York	175.24	0.0%	-0.8%	1.9%
Phoenix	147.98	0.2%	0.2%	2.4%
Portland	170.70	0.2%	0.1%	6.8%
San Diego	203.14	-0.2%	0.3%	4.8%
San Francisco	197.43	0.4%	0.2%	9.3%
Seattle	169.77	0.0%	-0.4%	6.6%
Tampa	165.19	0.1%	0.8%	6.4%
Washington	207.09	0.0%	-0.6%	1.5%
Composite-10	187.81	0.1%	-0.3%	4.3%
Composite-20	173.02	0.1%	-0.2%	4.5%
U.S. National	166.82	-0.1%	-0.1%	4.6%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through December 2014    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and nonseasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	December/November Change (%)		November/October Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	0.2%	1.1%	0.2%	1.8%
Boston	-0.2%	0.5%	-0.2%	0.8%
Charlotte	0.2%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.8%
Chicago	-0.9%	0.5%	-1.2%	0.9%
Cleveland	-0.5%	0.5%	-0.4%	0.4%
Dallas	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	1.0%
Denver	0.5%	1.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Detroit	0.0%	1.2%	-0.8%	0.6%
Las Vegas	-0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.8%
Los Angeles	0.3%	1.0%	0.3%	1.1%
Miami	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.8%
Minneapolis	-0.3%	0.9%	-0.7%	0.1%
New York	0.0%	0.9%	-0.8%	0.4%
Phoenix	0.2%	0.7%	0.2%	0.5%
Portland	0.2%	1.0%	0.1%	1.2%
San Diego	-0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.8%
San Francisco	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%	1.2%
Seattle	0.0%	1.2%	-0.4%	0.5%
Tampa	0.1%	0.8%	0.8%	1.7%
Washington	0.0%	0.7%	-0.6%	0.4%
Composite-10	0.1%	0.8%	-0.3%	0.8%
Composite-20	0.1%	0.9%	-0.2%	0.8%
U.S. National	-0.1%    0.7%		-0.1%	0.8%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through December 2014    

 

 

About the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a valueweighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

 

These Indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic.

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by CoreLogic. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

 

About S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial, is the world's largest, global resource for index-based concepts, data and research. Home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC has over 115 years of experience constructing innovative and transparent solutions that fulfill the needs of investors. More assets are invested in products based upon our indices than any other provider in the world. With over 1,000,000 indices covering a wide range of asset classes across the globe, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC defines the way investors measure and trade the markets. To learn more about our company, please visit www.spdji.com.

 

S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("S&P"), a part of McGraw Hill Financial. Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"). These trademarks have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P and their respective affiliates (collectively "S&P Dow Jones Indices") do not sponsor, endorse, sell, or promote any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. This document does not constitute an offer of services in jurisdictions where S&P Dow Jones Indices does not have the necessary licenses. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties.

 

For more information: David Guarino

Head of Communications S&P Dow Jones Indices dave.guarino@spdji.com

212-438-1471

 

David Blitzer

Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee

S&P Dow Jones Indices david.blitzer@spdji.com

212-438-3907

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Predictions about the housing market in 2015

From left: Lawrence Yun, Jonathan Smoke, Christopher Thornberg, Mark Zandi, Jed Kolko

Inozemtsev Konstantin/Shutterstock

Mortgage

5 economists forecast the 2015 housing market

An exclusive roundup from RealtyTrac's "Housing News Report"

As we ring in a New Year, the "Housing News Report" asked five prominent economists to forecast what 2015 will bring for the U.S. housing market after a 2014 that was a bit of a reality check in the housing recovery following two strong bounce-back years in 2012 and 2013.

Overall, the economists we interviewed were cautiously optimistic about 2015 when it comes to home prices, home sales, interest rates and the impact of loosening lending standards that have recently been introduced by government agencies. All of them see a return of more traditional, owner-occupant buyers for the year, but not all agree which demographic those buyers will come from — millennials or older generations who either delayed a home purchase because of the housing bubble or are boomerang buyers coming back from a failed attempt at homeownership during the housing bubble.

Here's what they are forecasting for 2015:

Quick takes:

Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors: More buyers returning to market from improved job market conditions and a steady flow of buyers who went into the "penalty box" after a distressed property sale.

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com: The new 3 percent down payment products coming from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should have a positive impact on the market as they enable more first-time buyers who have good credit, but limited assets.

Christopher Thornberg, principal at Beacon Economics: We expect sales and price appreciation to pick up steam this year. Existing home sales should rise over 5 million and prices will accelerate some — probably close to double digits by the end of next year.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics: New and existing home sales are expected to increase by as much as 20 percent in 2015. Key to this optimism is continued gains in the job market. The market should be tight enough that households will finally enjoy real wage gains.

Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia: The strongest source of housing demand will be young people getting jobs and forming households. But they'll be moving into rentals and saving for a down payment rather than buying homes right away.

In hindsight, how did 2014 match up with your forecast for the year?

Kolko: The housing market in 2014 turned out as we expected in many ways. Housing affordability has declined, thanks to home prices continuing to rise faster than incomes. Markets that were hurt badly in the bust and then rebounded in 2012 and 2013 saw sharp price slowdowns in 2014, while other markets have seen steadily rising prices. First-time buyers did not lift the market, and investor activity declined — which is what we meant by calling 2014 "the year of the repeat home buyer." And the apartment market has been on fire. Our predictions for 2014 are here.

What, if anything, surprised you about the direction the economy and economic policy headed during the year?

Thornberg: We had been bullish on 2014 in general and had forecasted a 3 percent growth year. Needless to say the first quarter with its negative growth rate surprised us. But the forces that created this contraction were transitory, and the economy has roared back since. We think — that all said and done — the economy will end up very close to our original prediction.

However, this is not true for the rest of the world. It's impossible to foresee the issues out there, but the ongoing issues in Europe and the collapse in commodity prices at the end of the year took us by surprise. There are good and bad points to these trends. Exports will be less of a source for potential growth, but at the same time American's are enjoying low gas prices and interest rates. In the end, we don't think the external situation will push the U.S. off its current growth path.

What will be the most important housing market trend(s) in 2015 and why?

Smoke: Realtor.com anticipates the most important trend in 2015 will be a substantial change in what has been missing in the housing market recovery thus far: the first-time homebuyer. In 2015, we should see first-time buyer market share return to more normal levels due to increased demand from millennials resulting from demographic and economic factors. On the demographic side, the largest generation ever is reaching a critical tipping point in the number of 25- to 34-year-olds, the historically key age range for buying a first home. On the economic side, job growth continues to favor the young, so opportunities are improving for this buyer segment just as life events are driving more interest in home ownership.

Homebuilding should finally see more growth in 2015 with at least 20 percent growth in single-family starts. Builders focusing on more affordable entry-level product will enable some growth. However, lot, labor and building material constraints will limit how much builders can deliver. The first-time market is critical to seeing more recovery in the volume of new construction.

As the dust settles on 2015, we should also be able to write the final chapter on the aftermath of the financial and housing crisis with its abnormal levels of distressed property activity and investor purchases.

What is your outlook for 2015 in terms of home prices — both existing and new?

Zandi: House price growth in 2015 should be in the low single digits, for both existing and new homes. Prices are recovered in most parts of the country, and are consistent with household incomes and rents. Homebuilders also need to worry about affordability given the big increases in new house prices in recent years.

What is your outlook for 2015 in terms of home sales — both existing and new?

Zandi: New and existing home sales are expected to increase by as much as 20 percent in 2015. Key to this optimism is continued gains in the job market. The market should be tight enough that households will finally enjoy real wage gains. The wage gains will buoy housing affordability in confidence, both essential ingredients for stronger housing demand.

Where are interest rates headed in 2015?

Smoke: Mortgage rates will go up in 2015 — the key questions are: When and by how much? We expect the average 30-year fixed rate to reach 5 percent by the end of the year. While the Fed may not act on increases until the second half of the year, the bond and mortgage markets are likely to move well in advance. We are also likely to see quite a bit of rate volatility in 2015 until the Fed's actions are evident and the global economic picture becomes clearer.

We are already seeing average rates increase slightly since the Fed's formal statement on Dec. 17, where they dropped "considerable time" language from their statements. Keep an eye out for more anticipatory movement as the year progresses.

How will recent efforts to loosen lending standards impact the housing market in 2015?

Kolko: Modestly. The main obstacle to buying a home is saving for a down payment, according to Trulia's consumer survey, more than qualifying for a mortgage. Furthermore, many future first-time buyers are still years away from homeownership if they're just now moving out of their parents' homes into their first rental. But looser lending standards could help people who lost a home during the housing crisis and are ready and able to buy again.

Read the entire interview, including responses to each question from every economist, in RealtyTrac's January 2015 newsletter — now free with Inman Select membership.

Daren Blomquist is the vice president of RealtyTrac.

 

Comments

by Daren Blomquist

Jan 22

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